<p>The <span class="key-term" data-definition="India Meteorological Department — India's national weather agency responsible for forecasting and monitoring weather, climate and related hazards (GS3: Environment)">IMD</span> has projected an 8% shortfall in the June‑September 2026 southwest monsoon, classifying it as “below normal”. This follows two consecutive years of excess rainfall and raises concerns of drought‑like conditions, especially in rain‑dependent agricultural regions.</p> <h3>Key Developments</h3> <ul> <li>IMD’s April 2026 forecast predicts monsoon rainfall at <strong>92% of the Long Period Average (LPA)</strong>, implying an 8% deficit.</li> <li>Historical analysis shows that when IMD signals a deficit in April, a drought‑type outcome materialises in most cases.</li> <li>The forecast attributes the likely weakness to an emerging <span class="key-term" data-definition="El Niño — A periodic warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns, often suppressing the Indian monsoon (GS3: Environment)">El Niño</span> event, expected to intensify in August‑September.</li> <li>The concurrent <span class="key-term" data-definition="Indian Ocean Dipole — An oscillation of sea‑surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean that can either amplify or offset the impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon (GS3: Environment)">Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)</span> is projected to be neutral, offering limited counter‑balance.</li> <li>Potential downstream effects include reduced water availability in reservoirs, lower soil moisture, and heightened farmer distress over fertilizer and gas shortages.</li> </ul> <h3>Important Facts</h3> <p>• <strong>Long Period Average (LPA)</strong> is the climatological mean of monsoon rainfall over a 30‑year reference period; the 2026 forecast expects rainfall at <strong>92% of LPA</strong>, below the 90% threshold that defines a “deficient” monsoon.</p> <p>• In 2015, IMD warned of a “below normal” monsoon at 93% of LPA, but actual rainfall fell to 86% of LPA, illustrating the agency’s cautious bias.</p> <p>• Since 1950, El Niño has coincided with a deficient monsoon 9 out of 16 times, underscoring its significance as a climatic driver.</p> <h3>UPSC Relevance</h3> <p>Understanding monsoon variability is crucial for GS 3 (Environment & Climate) and GS 2 (Agriculture & Food Security). The monsoon influences food grain production, water resources, and rural livelihoods, directly affecting poverty alleviation and fiscal planning. Knowledge of agencies like <span class="key-term" data-definition="India Meteorological Department — India's national weather agency responsible for forecasting and monitoring weather, climate and related hazards (GS3: Environment)">IMD</span>, and climate phenomena such as <span class="key-term" data-definition="El Niño — A periodic warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns, often suppressing the Indian monsoon (GS