IMD Forecasts Below‑Normal July Monsoon; El Niño Threat to Kharif Crops

Overview The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that July rainfall will be below normal , i.e., less than 94% of the long‑term average. This follows a June deficit of 40%, with actual rainfall of 99.5 mm against a normal of 165.3 mm . The agency highlighted risks to agriculture, water supply, hydropower generation , ecosystems and drinking water. Key Developments June 2026 recorded a 39.8% shortfall in rainfall across all four meteorological subdivisions. IMD projects July 2026 rainfall to be below 94% of the normal value. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warned of a possible ‘super’ El Niño event, which could aggravate the deficit. Potential impact on Kharif crops , especially in rainfed agriculture zones. Important Facts June 2026 rainfall: 99.5 mm (long‑period average: 165.3 mm ). Deficit: 39.8% below normal across all subdivisions. July forecast: below 94% of normal rainfall. IMD’s warning covers agriculture, water resources, hydropower , ecosystem health and drinking water supply. UPSC Relevance Understanding monsoon variability is crucial for GS 3 (Environment & Ecology) and GS 3 (Agriculture). The link between a strong El Niño and deficient monsoon rainfall tests candidates’ grasp of climate‑weather interactions. The impact on <span class="