Overview The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a hotter‑than‑normal summer for 2026, with the number of heatwave days in March and May expected to exceed the seasonal average. This early rise in temperature follows a February that was the fifth‑warmest since records began in 1901. Key Developments Minimum temperatures in March will stay above average across most regions, according to Mr. Mohapatra . Both maximum and minimum temperatures in February were above normal, marking the fifth‑warmest February on record. Above‑average March temperatures risk reducing grain size and yields of winter‑sown crops like wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas. India, the world’s second‑largest wheat producer, hopes a bumper 2026 harvest will enable surplus exports and curb costly imports of edible oils . Important Facts • February 2026 recorded the fifth‑warmest temperature since 1901, with both daily highs and lows above the long‑term average. • March 2026 is expected to see minimum temperatures consistently above the seasonal norm across most states. • The projected increase in heatwave days could shrink grain size of wheat, potentially affecting overall yield despite a generally good monsoon outlook. UPSC Relevance GS‑3 (Environment & Climate): Understanding the role of IMD in climate monitoring and its impact on agriculture. GS‑3 (Agriculture & Food Security): Effects of temperature anomalies on winter crops and the consequent food‑grain security. GS‑3 (Economy): Implications for India’s wheat export potential and the need to reduce imports of edible oils , influencing trade balance. Way Forward Policymakers should consider early‑season advisories to farmers, promote heat‑resilient crop varieties, and strengthen storage infrastructure to mitigate yield losses. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Agriculture can explore strategic reserves of wheat to stabilise export commitments while diversifying edible‑oil import sources to reduce vulnerability to price shocks. Continuous monitoring by the IMD will be crucial for timely interventions.