NOAA भविष्यवाणी करता है मजबूत El Niño 2026 – IMD चेतावनी देता है हीटवेव और औसत से कम मॉनसून

<p>India faces a dual climate threat: the <span class="key-term" data-definition="India Meteorological Department — India's national weather agency responsible for forecasting weather, issuing warnings, and monitoring climate (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">IMD</span> has issued heat‑wave alerts for the north, centre and east, while the <span class="key-term" data-definition="National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — U.S. agency that monitors oceans and atmosphere, providing ENSO forecasts (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">NOAA</span> expects a strong <span class="key-term" data-definition="El Niño Southern Oscillation — a periodic fluctuation of sea‑surface temperature and atmospheric pressure over the equatorial Pacific that influences global weather patterns (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">ENSO</span> warm phase (El Niño) to develop from May‑July 2026 and persist through the year.</p> <h3>Key Developments</h3> <ul> <li><strong>May‑July 2026:</strong> NOAA’s monthly ENSO update (11 May) signals a high probability of El Niño formation, potentially a <span class="key-term" data-definition="Super El Niño — informal term for a very strong El Niño event, usually with sea‑surface temperature anomalies ≥2 °C, linked to extreme weather impacts (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">Super El Niño</span> this year.</li> <li><strong>April 2026:</strong> <span class="key-term" data-definition="India Meteorological Department — India's national weather agency responsible for forecasting weather, issuing warnings, and monitoring climate (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">IMD</span> projects monsoon rainfall at only 92 % of the long‑period average (LPA 87 cm), similar to the 2015‑16 Super El Niño season.</li> <li><strong>Heat‑wave risk:</strong> A fresh <span class="key-term" data-definition="Western Disturbance — extratropical weather system originating in the Mediterranean that brings winter rain to north India; its interaction with heatwaves can worsen conditions (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">Western Disturbance</span> may intensify the ongoing heatwave, raising temperature and fire hazards.</li> </ul> <h3>Important Facts about ENSO</h3> <p>ENSO has three phases: <strong>El Niño</strong> (warm), <strong>La Niña</strong> (cold) and <strong>Neutral</strong>. Under normal (neutral) conditions, trade winds push warm water westward, causing upwelling of cold, nutrient‑rich water off South America. During El Niño, weakened trade winds allow warm water to pool in the central/eastern Pacific, shifting the low‑pressure zone eastward (Southern Oscillation) and disrupting global weather.</p> <p>Monitoring relies on three indices:</p> <ul> <li><span class="key-term" data-definition="Oceanic Niño Index — measures three‑month average sea‑surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region; ≥+0.5 °C for five overlapping periods defines El Niño (GS3: Environment & Ecology)">ONI</span>: SST anomaly ≥ +0.5 °C signals El Niño.</li> <li><span class="key-term" data-definition="Southern Oscil