RBI ने इरान संघर्ष से उत्पन्न सप्लाई‑साइड शॉक के बीच रेपो रेट को बरकरार रखा – भारत के लिए स्टैगफ्लेशन जोखिम

<h3>Overview</h3> <p>The ongoing war in Iran has tightened global energy supplies, pushing crude oil prices up and creating a classic <span class="key-term" data-definition="Stagflation – A macroeconomic condition where inflation rises while economic growth stagnates, usually triggered by supply‑side shocks. (GS3: Economy)">stagflation</span> scenario for India. The <span class="key-term" data-definition="Reserve Bank of India – India’s central banking institution responsible for monetary policy, currency regulation, and financial stability. (GS3: Economy)">RBI</span> kept the <span class="key-term" data-definition="Repo rate – The rate at which the RBI lends short‑term funds to commercial banks; a primary tool to control liquidity and inflation. (GS3: Economy)">repo rate</span> unchanged in its April 6‑8 <span class="key-term" data-definition="Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – The six‑member body of the RBI that decides the repo rate and other monetary measures. (GS3: Economy)">MPC</span> meeting, citing elevated energy prices and supply‑chain disruptions.</p> <h3>Key Developments</h3> <ul> <li><strong>April 6‑8, 2026:</strong> RBI’s MPC announced a hold on the repo rate, labeling the current inflationary pressure as a supply‑side issue rather than demand‑driven.</li> <li>Higher crude prices are feeding imported inflation and widening the current‑account deficit.</li> <li>Disruptions in the <span class="key-term" data-definition="Strait of Hormuz – A narrow waterway between Oman and Iran through which a large share of global oil passes; any blockage raises world oil prices. (GS3: Economy)">Strait of Hormuz</span> have amplified cost pressures on fuel, transport, manufacturing and agriculture.</li> <li>External demand for Indian exports is expected to soften as the West Asia crisis slows global trade.</li> </ul> <h3>Important Facts</h3> <p>The RBI’s inflation‑targeting framework assumes that price changes are primarily demand‑driven. Repeated supply shocks – pandemics, wars, energy disruptions – have exposed the limits of this assumption. When inflation stems from a <span class="key-term" data-definition="Supply shock – An unexpected event that disrupts the production or supply of essential inputs, leading to price hikes and output decline. (GS3: Economy)">supply shock</span>, raising the repo rate does not increase oil supply or fix broken supply chains. Consequently, the central bank has adopted a “wait and watch” stance, acknowledging that conventional demand‑management tools are insufficient.</p> <h3>UPSC Relevance</h3> <p>Understanding the interplay between <span class="key-term" data-definition="Inflation targeting – RBI’s policy of aiming for a 4% consumer price index inflation, based on the premise that demand drives price changes. (GS3: Economy)">inflation targeting</span> and supply‑side disruptions is crucial for GS‑3 (Economy) questions on monetary policy. The article illustrates how geopolitical events (e.g., the Iran war) transla