Overview
India is set to become a dominant driver of global energy growth over the next decade. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft, warned that the country will account for about half of the world’s oil‑demand increase and roughly 15 % of the rise in electricity consumption.
Key Developments
- Oil consumption in India is projected to rise by 44 % to nearly 8 million barrels per day by 2035.
- Electricity demand is expected to jump by 80 %, reaching close to 3,000 TWh, a level comparable to the current EU consumption.
- The Strait of Hormuz conflict and broader geopolitical tensions pose risks to India’s energy security.
- Disruptions could also affect fertiliser shipments, raising food prices in vulnerable regions.
- Rosneft’s stake of 49.13 % in Nayara Energy underlines deepening Russia‑India energy ties.
- Growth in AI and data‑centre usage is cited as a major factor behind the surge in power demand.
Important Facts
The IEA projects that over the next ten years, India will contribute about 15 % of the global increase in electricity demand and roughly 50 % of the growth in oil demand.
Since April 2022, the combined value of Russian oil supplied to China and India has exceeded US$40 billion, highlighting the economic importance of these partnerships.
UPSC Relevance
Energy security, import dependence, and geopolitical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are recurring topics in GS3 (Economy) and GS4 (International Relations). Understanding India’s projected energy trajectory helps answer questions on sustainable development, trade policy, and strategic autonomy.
The role of state‑owned enterprises such as Rosneft and joint ventures like Nayara Energy illustrates how energy diplomacy intertwines with economic and security considerations.
Way Forward
- Diversify energy import sources to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.
- Accelerate investment in renewable energy and storage to balance the rise in AI-driven demand.
- Strengthen strategic reserves and domestic refining capacity, leveraging partnerships like the one with Rosneft.
- Engage in multilateral forums to ensure the free flow of energy commodities through critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.