The IMD has projected that the Southwest Monsoon will set in over Kerala on May 26, 2026 with a model error of ± 4 days. This early onset follows last year’s May 24 onset and precedes the usual June 1 arrival.
Key Developments
- Monsoon onset over Kerala expected on May 26, 2026 (± 4 days).
- Favourable conditions for the monsoon to advance over the South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours.
- IMD projects an overall below‑normal rainfall for the 2026 season, estimating 80 cm against a long‑period average of 87 cm.
- Emergence of El Niño conditions is cited as the main reason for the anticipated deficit.
Important Facts
The monsoon season (June‑September) contributes nearly 70 % of India’s annual rainfall, making it vital for agriculture, reservoir replenishment and groundwater recharge. A below‑normal monsoon can strain crop yields, affect food‑grain prices and pressure the fiscal deficit. The forecast also notes a transition from the hot, dry pre‑monsoon period to a cooler, rain‑laden climate, providing relief from scorching summer temperatures across the sub‑continent.In its May 1 monthly outlook, the IMD warned that the ENSO‑neutral conditions were shifting toward an El Niño phase, a development that typically curtails Indian monsoon rainfall.
Exam Relevance
Understanding the monsoon’s timing and variability is critical for several UPSC topics: climate‑change impacts on agriculture (GS3), disaster management and early warning systems (GS3), and the economic implications of rainfall deficits on food security and fiscal health (GS3). The role of the IMD exemplifies inter‑agency coo