Monsoon Transition Overview
On 15 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon had fully withdrawn from the country. On the same day, the northeast monsoon began over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe.
Key Developments
- The southwest monsoon ended with an accumulated rainfall of 759.4 mm, which is 12.6 % below the normal of 868.6 mm.
- The northeast monsoon is expected to bring isolated heavy showers across south peninsular India until 21 October 2026.
- Persistent El Niño conditions have been present since June 2026 and are projected to peak in December 2026, possibly becoming the strongest since 1950.
- The ENSO is expected to remain in the El Niño phase through February 2027.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a strong El Niño peak in December 2026.
Important Facts
The kharif agricultural season relies on the southwest monsoon, while the rabi season benefits from the northeast monsoon. The rainfall deficit this year may affect kharif yields, potentially raising food‑grain prices and influencing inflation trends.
Exam Relevance
- GS 3 (Economy & Environment): Understanding monsoon variability, its impact on agriculture, and the role of ENSO in climate forecasting.
- GS 2 (Polity): The functioning of the IMD as a statutory body under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
- GS 4 (Ethics & Integrity): Policy implications of climate‑related risks and the need for transparent communication to farmers and the public.
Way Forward
Policymakers should:
- Strengthen drought‑mitigation schemes for kharif‑dependent states, given the below‑normal rainfall.
- Enhance early‑warning systems through the IMD and coordinate with the WMO for real‑time updates.
- Promote climate‑resilient crop varieties and water‑conservation practices to offset the adverse effects of a strong El Niño.
Monitoring the evolution of the ENSO cycle will be crucial for anticipating further monsoon anomalies and planning agricultural and economic responses.