UNEP’s ‘Limiting Overshoot’ Report Warns of 1.5°C World, Highlights Methane Action and COP31 Stakes

Overview The UNEP released the Limiting Overshoot report. It states that even if every country meets its current climate pledges, the planet will still warm to 1.8°C by 2100, and under existing policies to 2.6°C . The report accepts that the 1.5°C limit has already been breached and proposes an "overshoot, peak and decline" pathway to bring temperatures back below the threshold by the end of the century. Key Developments Current policies project a rise of 2.6°C by 2100, exceeding the Paris target. The report stresses rapid reduction of methane as the most effective near‑term action. Over 155 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge ; India is not among them. Anticipated strong El Niño event could become one of the strongest on record, likely re‑emerging in 2027. Negotiations for COP31 will revisit mitigation and finance gaps, especially after the Bhotekoshi disaster . Important Facts • The world is already in a 1.5°C warming regime; preventing further rise is harder than reversing it. • Methane contributes roughly 0.5°C to current warming, making its cut a high‑impact lever. • Developing economies, especially India, argue for greater climate finance and technology transfer, citing historic emissions by developed nations. • Nepal’s foreign minister, Shisir Khanal , urged major emitters—including India—to consider small‑state vulnerabilities. UPSC Relevance This report links directly to GS‑III topics on climate change, international environmental agreements, and sustainable development. Aspirants should note the distinction between mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation (building resilience). Understanding the political dynamics of the Global Methane Pledge and the finance‑technology debate helps answer questions on climate justice, the role of developing countries, and the functioning of UN climate conferences. Way Forward India should publicly acknowledge the 1.5°C reality, strengthen its methane mitigation strategies, and negotiate for enhanced adaptation finance at COP31 . Simultaneously, it must balance development needs with low‑carbon pathways, leveraging renewable energy expansion and technology transfer mechanisms. Monitoring the upcoming El Niño will be crucial for disaster preparedness and for informing future climate policy.